The UK weather is expected to become more unsettled this week, with rain returning across many areas alongside a growing chance of thunderstorm and localised flooding.
While the wet conditions could provide welcome relief for parts of the country affected by dry weather and drought, forecasters caution that significantly more rainfall will be required before drought conditions can fully ease.
At the same time, warmer air moving north from southern Europe is expected to push temperatures close to 30C (86F) in parts of England during the middle of the week.
Rain to Increase From Tuesday
Most areas are expected to remain relatively dry on Monday, but conditions will begin to change from Tuesday as an area of low pressure moves in from the southwest.
Showery weather is expected to develop across parts of southern England and south Wales. By Wednesday, rainfall is forecast to become more widespread across England, Wales and Northern Ireland, while much of Scotland could remain largely dry.
Some of the showers could become heavy and thundery.
From Wednesday evening through Friday, the risk of torrential downpours, hail and thunderstorms is expected to increase, particularly across southern England and Wales.
Localised Flooding Possible
The combination of heavy rainfall and dry, hard ground could increase the risk of surface water and localised flooding in some areas.
However, rainfall amounts are expected to vary considerably because of the showery nature of the weather. Not every location will receive the same amount of rain, meaning the effects are likely to differ significantly from one area to another.
People in areas affected by heavy downpours may therefore need to keep up with local weather and flood warnings as the week progresses.
Will the Rain End the Drought?
Although this week rainfall could help improve river levels and soil moisture, it is unlikely to bring an immediate end to drought conditions.
Drought recovery generally requires sustained rainfall over a longer period. Rivers, reservoirs, soil and groundwater supplies all need time to recover, and a drought is only considered to have ended when these indicators return to normal levels for the time of year.
The British Geological Survey has stressed that significant cumulative rainfall over time is needed to replenish groundwater resources.
Recent monitoring has nevertheless provided some encouraging signs. Of 35 groundwater sites surveyed by the British Geological Survey across the UK, eight were reported to be showing notably low levels.
This suggests that while some groundwater resources remain under pressure, the situation is not uniform across the country.
Temperatures Set to Rise Again
The return of rain does not mean the end of warmer conditions.
Warmer air moving north from southern Europe is expected to push temperatures higher during the middle of the week. Scotland and Northern Ireland could reach around 20C by Wednesday, while parts of southern England and Wales could see temperatures of 28C or 29C.
The southeast of England is expected to be among the warmest areas.
Despite the rise in temperatures, the warmer spell is expected to be relatively short lived. Forecast indicate that temperatures are unlikely to reach heatwave thresholds again before the end of August.
What Happens After This Week?
Looking further ahead, some weather models suggest that higher pressure could develop during the second week of September.
If that pattern develop, warmer air could once again move towards the UK. However, longer range forecasts carry greater uncertainty, and conditions could change as the period approaches.
For now, the main focus remains on the unsettled weather expected from Tuesday onwards, with heavy rain, thunderstorms and possible localised flooding likely to be the key weather concerns.
At the same time, the rainfall could provide some much needed relief to dry parts of the country, although a single wet spell is unlikely to be enough to reverse the UK wider drought situation